This independent analysis was funded by the UK and devolved governments and has been delivered through a consortium of UK research organisations and consultants led by HR Wallingford.

The CCRA is intended to help the Government, businesses and other groups to assess the priority areas for action, by enabling comparison of different risks based on the scale of their financial, social and environmental impacts, their likelihood, and how soon the risk is likely to occur. The CCRA is the first assessment of its kind for the UK and will be reviewed every 5 years.

As well as the full report and summary, individual reports and summaries have been published for each of 11 key sectors and for the devolved governments. In addition, the nine Climate Change Partnerships across England have produced information packs to highlight key risks and opportunities from climate change and what they mean across a range of sectors within each area.

The CCRA Government Report sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK, and describes the policy context and action already in place to tackle some of the risks. The Government Report also highlights the constraints of the CCRA analysis and provides advice on how to take account of the uncertainty within the analysis.

The case for action

Speaking at the launch of the CCRA, Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman said:

“This world class research provides the most comprehensive case yet on why we need to take action to adapt the UK and our economy to the impacts of climate change. It shows what life could be like if we stopped our preparations now, and the consequences such a decision would mean for our economic stability.

“The Climate Change Risk Assessment will be vital in helping us to understand what we need to do to stop these threats becoming a reality. In doing so there is also great potential for growth through UK firms developing innovative products and services tailored to meet the global climate challenges.”

Working together to maintain resilience

The Government has also announced that it will work with businesses, civil society and local government to develop a National Adaptation Programme (NAP) to help prepare the UK for the effects of climate change, including the risks set out in the CCRA. The completed NAP will be published in 2013, setting out timescales for the actions Government will take to meet the challenges of climate change.

People are encouraged to give their ideas on the action needed to tackle the implications of climate change where they live and work, through the National Adaptation Programme webpages.

Mrs Spelman explained the need to take account of the views of the public:

“Climate change is a global phenomenon, but its impacts will be felt at a local level and affect people differently depending on where they live. That is why I want people to give us their views to help develop a National Adaption Programme that puts us in the best shape possible to meet climate change head on.”

Highlighting the challenges

The CCRA highlights the top 100 challenges to the UK and our economy of a changing climate across 11 key sectors, from biodiversity and agriculture to health and the built environment. It provides a significant component of the underpinning evidence to support decisions and actions required to tackle the risks, and take advantage of the opportunities, arising from climate change, as well as providing compelling evidence of the need to increase our resilience.

In order to provide a reliable baseline for decisions by Government, local authorities and businesses the research does not take into account any future policies or plans. However, a Government report published alongside the CCRA does highlight the many current and future policies already in place and gives details of plans which will address some of the risks identified.

Among the key risks the CCRA identifies, in the unlikely event the UK took no further action, are:

• Hotter summers present significant health risks
  The number of days in an average year when temperatures rise above 26°C is projected to rise from 18 days to between 27 and 121 days in London by the 2080s. This could mean greater demand for energy to cool buildings and more heat related illnesses. On average, hot weather accounts for around 1,100 premature deaths a year in the UK. By the 2050s, this figure is projected to increase by between 580 and 5,900, with the greatest risk in London and southern England. The Department for Health launched a Heatwave Plan in 2004 and updates it annually to provide advice and support for people vulnerable to hotter weather.
• Increasing pressure on the UK’s water resources
  Without action to improve water resources, the supply-demand deficit may increase by the 2050s in parts of the north, south and east of England with the greatest challenge in the Thames basin. Defra published a Water White Paper last year which includes a package of measures to address water supply shortages, and to ensure the water industry is more resilient to future challenges.
• Risks of flooding are projected to increase significantly across the UK
  New analysis for England and Wales shows that if no further plans were made to adapt to changing flood risks, by the 2080s annual damages to buildings and property due to the effects of climate change and population growth could reach between £2.1 billion – £12 billion, compared to current costs of £1.2 billion. Defra has introduced a new method of allocating funding for flood defences so that more communities will benefit from flood protection, and is working with the ABI to ensure that flood insurance remains widely available after the current agreement between Government and insurers expires in 2013. As part of these discussions, Defra is considering whether there are feasible, value for money ways of targeting funding support to those at highest flood risk and less able to pay.
• Increases in drought and some pests and diseases could reduce timber yields and quality.
  Projected drought conditions could mean a drop in timber yields of between 10% and 25% by the 2080s in the south east, driving up timber costs. Pests and diseases, which may thrive in warmer conditions, may also pose an increasing threat. Red band needle blight, for example, causes loss of foliage and can lead to tree death. Defra has published a Tree and Plant Health Biosecurity Action Plan and committed £7million to further research into plant diseases.

The CCRA also highlights opportunities for the UK that climate change could present, including:

• Opening of Arctic shipping routes
  The melting of Arctic sea ice, while having potentially significant negative environmental consequences, could lead to the opening up of new container shipping routes and improved trade links with Asia and the Pacific.
• Milder winters may result in a major reduction in cold-related deaths and illnesses
  Currently, cold weather results in between 26,000 and 57,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. By the 2050s, a reduction in these figures of between 3,900 and 24,000 is projected to occur due to increasing average winter temperatures. This would particularly benefit vulnerable groups, including those with existing health problems.
• Opportunities to improve sustainable food production
  Sugar beet yields are projected to increase by 20-70% and wheat yields by 40-140% by the 2050s due to longer growing seasons if water and nutrients remain available. A warmer climate presents opportunities to grow new crops such as soya, sunflowers, peaches, apricots and grapes, while new markets may open up overseas for British grown produce.

Understanding the implications of climate change

Professor Sir Bob Watson, Chief Scientific Adviser at Defra, said:

“The CCRA is ground-breaking research which puts the UK at the forefront of understanding what the projected changes to our climate will really mean for us.

“For the first time it means we can compare a wide range of risks based on their financial, social and environmental implications. This will be invaluable for Government in prioritising the areas for future policies and investment, and it will help businesses assess what they need to do to ensure they are resilient to the changing climate.”

Lord John Krebs, Chair of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, which scrutinised the evidence report, said:

“Without an effective plan to prepare for the risks from climate change the country may sleepwalk into disaster. This report represents an important first step in the process and demonstrates why the UK needs to take action to adapt now. The work of my Committee has found that by taking steps to manage these risks, the UK can reduce the costs of climate change in the future.

“The Government’s forthcoming adaptation programme should tackle barriers to adaptation so that local communities, businesses and households can take action to prepare.”

Further reading

• UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: full evidence report, summary and reports for key sectors, devolved administrations and regions;
• National Adaptation Programme: inviting views to help prepare the UK for the effects of climate change.

You may also be interested in...

• Adapting to climate change: the Climate Ready Challenge
• Preparing communities for climate change

Govnet’s 6th annual Sustainable Development conference takes place on 28th February 2012 at the QEII Conference Centre, London.

Over the past six years, SDUK has established itself as a leading national forum for discussing the challenges and opportunities around sustainable growth within a low-carbon economy. As the Rio+20 Earth Summit 2012 approaches this conference will look to the UK’s priorities for the negotiations and the further steps the UK must take to tackle climate change and deliver sustainable development.

Phil Wynn Owen, Director General of International Climate Change and Energy Efficiency at DECC, will give the keynote address. Other speakers will include:

• Professor Robert Watson, Chief Scientific Advisor to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs;
• Mike Holmes, President, Planning Officers Association;
• Fiona MacGregor, Head of Affordable Housing, Homes and Communities Agency;
• Councillor Jonathan Cook, Deputy Leader and Cabinet Member for the Environment, Wandsworth Council;
• Chris Pook, Head, Green Economy Team, Department for Business, Innovation & Skills.

A selection of one-hour seminars running in the morning and afternoon will address areas of specific interest and include an interactive discussion. Three separate afternoon streams will also focus on more specific area of interest:

• Renewable and New Energy;
• Investing in Research and Development;
• Planning and Design – The Next Generation of Sustainable Housing.

More information and registration…

You may also be interested in...

• Transition Network Conference 2012: Building Resilience in Extraordinary Times
• Sustainable cities round-up: economy, carbon, air, climate, future cities

There are two major elements to the Climate Change Act of 2008: first, we must reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050; second, we must assess and implement options for adaptation to the current situation.

Even with a strong global climate agreement we would still have increasing climate change between now, 2020, 2050 and 2080, so adapting is essential. I believe the chances of a global accord to limit emissions are fading fast, so climate change is almost certainly going to occur at a significant speed.

Assessing the impacts of climate change

The Climate Change Act requires Defra to conduct a national assessment on the impacts of climate change across sectors of public interest.

A panel of independent experts is looking at 11 different sectors including agriculture, human health and infrastructure. The panel’s reports on the impacts in each sector have been completed and reviewed; a concluding report on the interaction of the sectors has been peer reviewed and will be laid before Parliament in January 2012.

The options for adaptation

The panel is now beginning a second strand to this work which will address the adaptation options for each sector to meet the challenges of climate change. These include issues such as flooding, coastal erosion and changes to agriculture.

Every sector is sure to undergo negative changes as a result of climate change, but by identifying the options for adaptation we can get a better understanding of the economic costs. Analysis of the options is being conducted in liaison with Defra and other key government departments such as the Department for Transport (DFT) and the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG).

We started our assessment with 700 different impact possibilities, which were reduced to the 100 most important through application of the knowledge base acquired through scientific research conducted by Defra, the Committee on Climate Change (CC) and independent bodies. The panel looked at three plausible climate change scenarios and researched the likely impacts on the 11 sectors in 2020, 2050 and 2080. This research has now been translated into the adaption needed in these time periods.

A second phase of the research into adaptation of the 11 sectors will address the economic impact, helping us to understand the true cost of climate change to the UK both now and in the future.

Mitigation and adaptation

We have to approach both mitigation and adaptation together, but a lack of political will at global level to deal with climate change is causing the delay of much needed action.

Just as at Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun in 2010, global scientific advisors are likely to insist this year in Durban that climate change temperatures must not increase to any more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Every piece of analysis I have seen or witnessed clearly highlights that we have little or no chance of meeting this target. I feel we are more likely to be on target for a rise of 3 or 4 degrees.

2 degrees remains the correct target but we must be prepared to live within a 4 degree world. Global emissions are increasing yearly: 2010 was higher than 2009 and this pattern will continue unless we take action now.

We must not bury our heads in the sand and give up on mitigation, but we must also look at the implications of climate change and how we can adapt. Some areas provide opportunities for both mitigation and adaptation. For instance, better management of our forests will release fewer emissions into the atmosphere and increased forest cover will build resilience to predicted climate change.

Conclusion

I believe the issue of climate change is as important to the UK as health, education or defence, but it also offers opportunities. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions we must move to a low carbon economy: by producing our energy in a much cleaner way through renewable offshore or onshore energy sources; and by using energy more effectively, for example through the energy efficient housing now being demonstrated and promoted by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and CLG.

Climate change requires the UK to reconsider how all our sectors are functioning and find opportunities for British industry to produce technology which can be used on a global scale and boost the economy.

The longer we delay the harder it will be to reduce climate change. I understand the serious economic difficulties affecting the world but feel we must not delay action on climate change.

Climate change must stay on the agenda now and not be forgotten for the next generation.

The UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA) has published its Synthesis of the Key Findings, reporting on its analysis of the UK’s natural environment in terms of the benefits it provides to society and continuing economic prosperity.

Assessing the UK’s natural environment and ecosystem services

The report is an independent and peer-reviewed assessment of the state and value of the UK’s natural environment and ecosystem services, identifying the drivers of change observed in the natural environment and the services it has provided over the last 60 years, and what may drive change in the future. It includes an investigation into the monetary and non-monetary value to the economy, society and individuals from various ecosystem services, including how some of these may change in future.

The UK NEA has used new approaches to estimate the value of the natural world by taking account of the economic, health and social benefits we get from nature. The report shows that the tendency to focus only on the market value of resources we can use and sell, such as timber, crops and fisheries, has led to the decline of some ecosystems and habitats through pollution, over-exploitation, and land conversion. It strengthens the arguments for protecting and enhancing the environment and will be used by the government to direct policy in future.

Part of the Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) initiative, the UK NEA commenced in mid-2009 and has involved over 500 UK scientists and economists, chaired by Professor Bob Watson and Professor Steve Albon. The project is funded by the governments of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Economic and Social Science Research council.

Key messages of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment

The report opens with six key messages:

• The natural world, its biodiversity and its constituent ecosystems are critically important to our well-being and economic prosperity, but are consistently undervalued in conventional economic analyses and decision making.
  Ecosystems and the services they deliver underpin our very existence. We depend on them to produce our food, regulate water supplies and climate, and breakdown waste products. We also value them in less obvious ways: contact with nature gives pleasure, provides recreation and is known to have a positive impact on long-term health and happiness.
• Ecosystems and ecosystem services, and the ways people benefit from them, have changed markedly in the past 60 years, driven by changes in society.
  During the second half of the 20th Century, the UK’s population grew by roughly a quarter to nearly 62 million, living standards greatly increased and technological developments and globalisation had major effects on behaviour and consumption patterns. The production of food from agriculture increased dramatically, but many other ecosystem services, particularly those related to air, water and soil quality, declined.
• The UK’s ecosystems are currently delivering some services well, but others are still in long-term decline.
  Of the range of services delivered in the UK by eight broad aquatic and terrestrial habitat types and their constituent biodiversity, about 30% have been assessed as currently declining. Many others are in a reduced or degraded state, including marine fisheries, wild species diversity and some of the services provided by soils. Reductions in ecosystem services are associated with declines in habitat extent or condition and changes in biodiversity, although the exact relationship between biodiversity and the ecosystem services it underpins is still incompletely understood.
• The UK population will continue to grow, and its demands and expectations continue to evolve. This is likely to increase pressures on ecosystem services in a future where climate change will have an accelerating impact both here and in the world at large.
  The UK’s population is predicted to grow by nearly 10 million in the next 20 years. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent severe weather events and alter rainfall patterns, with implications for agriculture, flood control and many other services. One major challenge is sustainable intensification of agriculture: increasing food production while decreasing the environmental footprint.
• Actions taken and decisions made now will have consequences far into the future for ecosystems, ecosystem services and human well-being. It is important that these are understood, so that we can make the best possible choices, not just for society now but also for future generations.
  Contemporary economic and participatory techniques allow us to estimate values for a wide range of ecosystem services. Applying these to scenarios of plausible futures shows that allowing decisions to be guided by market prices alone forgoes opportunities for major enhancements in ecosystem services, with negative consequences for social well-being. Recognising the value of ecosystem services more fully would allow the UK to move towards a more sustainable future, in which the benefits of ecosystem services are better realised and more equitably distributed.
• A move to sustainable development will require an appropriate mixture of regulations, technology, financial investment and education, as well as changes in individual and societal behaviour and adoption of a more integrated, rather than conventional sectoral, approach to ecosystem management.
  This will need the involvement of a range of different actors – government, the private sector, voluntary organisations and civil society at large – in processes that are open and transparent enough to facilitate dialogue and collaboration and allow necessary trade-offs to be understood and agreed on when making decisions.

Understanding the true value of nature

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman welcomed the report, which is contributing to Defra’s forthcoming Natural Environment White Paper:

“The natural world is vital to our existence, providing us with essentials such as food, water and clean air, but also other cultural and health benefits not always fully appreciated because we get them for free. The UK National Ecosystem Assessment is a vital step forward in our ability to understand the true value of nature and how to sustain the benefits it gives us.

“I want our children to be the first generation to leave the natural environment in a better state than it was left to them. In 50 years time I want them to be able to look back and see how much the value of nature has grown, not diminished.”

Professor Bob Watson, Chief Scientist at Defra and co-chair of the UK NEA, highlighted the help the NEA assessment will provide in managing ecosystems:

“There is an urgent need to better manage our ecosystems and the natural resources they provide us with. But until now there has been no clear way of valuing the full range of benefits they provide beyond what we can buy and sell. The UK NEA introduces groundbreaking approaches to measure the value of these services and how they will be affected in future if we do not make the right choices now.

“The NEA shows that we need a more integrated approach to ecosystem management, involving Government, the private sector, voluntary groups and the public working together to protect the services nature provides”

Over the past century agricultural science and new technologies have boosted production with enormous gains in yields and reductions in the price of food, but the benefits have been unevenly distributed and environmental degradation has resulted in many parts of the world.

Agricultural productivity globally has increased by almost a factor of 3 in the last 50 years, but one billion people still go to bed hungry every night and hunger has increased in several parts of the world, in particular in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, this increase in agricultural production has been accompanied by an increase in GHG emissions, loss of biodiversity, and land and water degradation. The underlying causes of hunger are more associated with poverty, institutional weaknesses and policy environments than an inability to produce enough food.

In the coming decades we need to double food availability in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner in order to alleviate hunger and under-nutrition. In addition, sustained growth in the agricultural sector is needed to reduce poverty, enhance rural livelihoods and stimulate economic growth in developing countries. While we could feed the world today with current technologies, further advances in agricultural science and technology are needed to meet future challenges. Agriculture can no longer be thought of as production alone, but the inescapable interconnectedness of agriculture’s different economic, social and environmental roles and functions must be explicitly recognised, i.e., agriculture is multifunctional. Without an appropriate enabling framework (i.e., rural development, access to markets, improved extension services, empowerment of women and trade reform), the potential of advances in agricultural science and technology will not be realised.

This increased food availability will have to be achieved at a time of less labor due to disease and rural to urban migration; less water due to increased competition from other sectors; less arable land due to competition from energy crops; high energy prices; distorted trade policies, e.g., OECD production subsidies; land policy conflicts; loss of biodiversity at the genetic, species and ecosystem level; increasing levels of air and water pollution; and human-induced climate change

Addressing the challenge of food security will require embedding economic, environmental and social sustainability into agricultural policies, practices and technologies; addressing today’s hunger problems with appropriate use of current technologies; advancing biotechnologies, which may be needed to address future demands for increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate change and new plant and animal pests, while recognizing that the risks and benefits must be fully understood; providing payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services; reforming international trade; and increasing public and private sector investment in research and development, extension services, and weather and market information.

Many of the technologies and practices we need to meet the challenge of sustainable agriculture already exist. For instance, we know how to manage soil and water more effectively to increase water retention and decrease erosion; we already have access to microbiological techniques to suppress diseases in soils and conventional biotechnology (plant breeding) can help us produce improved crop varieties. But climate change and new and emerging animal diseases are throwing up problems that we haven’t considered before and which will need advances in agricultural knowledge, science and technology to address.

Currently the most contentious issue in agricultural science is the use of recombinant DNA techniques to produce transgenic products. While GM technologies are being increasingly used in some parts of the world, in others there is strong public and political opposition.

Opening national agricultural markets to international competition can offer economic benefits, but can lead to long term negative effects on poverty alleviation, food security and the environment without basic national institutions and infrastructure being in place. Therefore, trade policy reform that provides a more equitable global trading system can help make small-scale farmers profitable and enhance the ability of developing countries to achieve food security while ensuring environmental sustainability. Developing countries would also benefit from the removal of barriers for products in which they have a competitive advantage by a reduction of escalating tariffs for processed commodities in both developed and developing countries.

The primary agricultural evidence challenge is to increase productivity in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner. This will require addressing water deficit problems, e.g., through improved drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etc; improving the temperature tolerance of crops; combating new or emerging agricultural pests or diseases; addressing soil fertility, salinzation of soils and improved nutrient cycling; reducing external and energy-intensive inputs; reducing GHG emissions while maintaining productivity; improving the nutritional quality of food; reducing waste and post harvest losses; and improving food safety.

Meeting the goal of affordable nutritious food for all, in an environmentally sustainable manner is achievable. The future is not pre-ordained, but is an our collective hands. While we can build upon our successes, we must also recognise that an extrapolation of business-as-usual will not suffice. Instead, we need to be bold enough to rethink agriculture. Most importantly, if we are to help today’s and tomorrow’s poor and disadvantaged, we need to acknowledge that the time to act is now.

Biodiversity, ecosystems and their services are critically important to human well-being and the economy. Changes in ecosystems and their services can have both positive and negative effects on human well-being.

Globally and nationally the emphasis has been placed on provisioning services to meet the increased need for food, fibre, water and energy, for increasing and wealthier populations. This has resulted in the unintended degradation of many ecosystems and their regulating (e.g., nutrient cycling), supporting (e.g., soil quality, and control of pest and diseases) and cultural services (e.g., recreation).

The direct drivers of ecosystem change include:

1. conversion of natural habitats;
2. exploitation of natural resources;
3. invasive species;
4. air and water pollution;
5. climate change.

These are driven by an increasing population, economic growth and trade liberalization, increased mechanization and use of agro-chemicals, socio-political and behavioural changes, all influencing the demand for goods and services and the way we manage our natural resources.

Unfortunately, the values of most ecosystem services are currently omitted from economic frameworks and decision-making. Failure to include non-market values in decision-making results in a less than optimum resource allocation.

Addressing the loss of biodiversity will require getting the economics right by making sure the value of all ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into account when making decisions; removing subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy; making payments to landowners in return for managing their lands in ways that protect and enhance ecosystem services; appropriate pricing policies for natural resources, e.g., water; applying fees, taxes, levees and tariffs to discourage activities that degrade biodiversity and ecosystem services; and establishing market mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective way

Key scientific challenges include understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem services; assessing the response of habitats to the indirect and direct drivers of change; linking changes in habitat condition to ecosystem services and then to human well-being; assessing changes in ecosystem services to value (economic and social); assessing how to get the economics right, e.g., elimination of subsidies and payment for ecosystem services; assessing how to appropriate the true economic value (market and non-market) of an ecosystem services to the local land owner; and evaluating the policy levers for different decision-makers – what is endogenous to a decision-maker and what is exogenous.

The composition of the atmosphere and the Earth’s climate has changed, mostly due to human activities, and is projected to continue to change, globally and regionally, with warmer temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, higher sea levels and storm surges, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of the Greenland ice cap, reduced arctic sea ice, and more frequent extreme weather events, e.g., heat waves, floods and droughts.

These projected changes in the Earth’s climate are predicted to adversely affect food security; water quantity and quality; biodiversity and ecological systems and their services, which are essential to human well-being and the economy; human health through an increase in heat stress mortality and the incidence of vector- borne diseases (e.g., malaria and dengue); and infrastructure and human settlements due to flooding, coastal erosion and sea level rise.

Projected changes in climate during the 21st century will occur faster than in at least the past 10,000 years with predominantly adverse consequences for developing countries and poor people within them. For the 850 million people who go to bed hungry every night, and the 2 billion others exposed to insect-borne diseases and water scarcity, climate change threatens to bring more suffering in its wake. In this way, climate change may undermine long-term development and the ability of many poor people to escape poverty.

The long-term challenge is to simultaneously stabilise the magnitude and rate of human-induced climate change, by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from all sectors, including agriculture, and to reduce the vulnerability of socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health to climate variability and change by integrating climate concerns into sectoral and national economic planning. This must happen in a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Adaptation to climate change is essential in-so-far-as the Earth’s climate is already changing and future change is inevitable. The immediate challenge is to decrease the vulnerability of socio-economic sectors and ecosystems to current climate variability. However, it must be recognized that there are physical, technological, financial, behavioural and institutional limits to adaptation.

A significant reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases will require an evolution in today’s technologies and policies, and must be achieved while improving access to affordable energy in developing countries, which is critical for poverty alleviation and economic growth. Reduced emissions of greenhouse gases will require energy sector reform, appropriate pricing policies, and a technological evolution in both the production and use of energy. However, technological options for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the long term already exist and large reductions can be attained using a portfolio of options and costs are likely to be lower than previously considered.

Biofuels can offer potential benefits over the rising costs of fossil fuels, enhance energy security, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the production of first generation biofuels, which are predominantly produced from agricultural crops, can raise food prices and reduce our ability to alleviate hunger. There is also considerable debate over the environmental impact of biofuels, including their greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on biodiversity. Increased public and private investments are needed for next-generation biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol and biomass to liquids technologies, so that cheaper and more abundant feedstocks can be converted into biofuels, potentially reducing the demand for agricultural land.

Most industrialised countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol which mandates industrialised countries to reduce their emissions on an average by 5.2% by 2012 relative to emissions in 1990; individual industrialised country targets vary. There are no emissions targets for developing countries. Given that many industrialised countries will not meet their reduction targets with domestic actions alone, this provides significant opportunities for carbon trading, which are likely to provide sustainable development benefits for many developing countries. The challenge now is to negotiate a long-term global equitable regulatory framework with intermediate targets that can limit greenhouse emissions at a level that limits the increase in global mean surface temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, the 2°C target is unlikely to be met and the world should be prepared to adapt to a 3-4°C increase.

Key scientific challenges include improving small spatial scale probabalistic projections of climate change, with a focus on extreme events and potential non-linear events; understanding and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural and forestry sectors; understanding the impact, including non-linear responses and economic costs, of climate change on socio-economic sectors, e.g., agriculture and water resources, ecosystems and their services, and human health; assessing the opportunities, barriers, economic costs, environmental and social implications of transitioning to a low-carbon economy and adapting to climate change; and understanding the climatic and environmental implications of geo-engineering techniques.

In conclusion, climate change, along with the loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems, threatens food, water and energy security. While there are many uncertainties in our knowledge, we know enough to manage these systems more sustainably.

23rd February 2011
The Barbican, London

The sixth annual Sustainable Development conference from Public Service Events will debate the key issues and policies that will shape the UK’s green agenda:

“A community-based approach to sustainable development can deliver benefits and, importantly, it could prove be the ideal method in helping to involve people. Tangible improvements to the local environment and neighbourhood as a whole can encourage activity, bring people together and promote civic pride. Local schemes can create jobs, energy-efficiencies and generate significant financial savings through economies of scale. But how will government policies help to remove the barriers that prevent communities from taking action and what role will local authorities have to play? How can we successfully embed sustainable practices into the everyday lives of local people and best reap the future benefits?”

The conference will also consider the role of innovation and climate change policies.

Confirmed speakers include:

• Professor Robert Watson, Chief Scientific Advisor, DEFRA;
• Jonathan Tillson, Head of Sustainable Development Unit, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs;
• Andy Deacon, Head of Local Delivery, Energy Saving Trust.

Full details and online booking are available at http://www.publicserviceevents.co.uk/event/overview.asp?ID=169

British businesses voluntarily measuring, managing and reporting their greenhouse gas emissions enjoy benefits such as cost savings, improved green credentials, and better relations with investors and customers, according to new research carried out for Defra by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Carbon Disclosure Project.

The research also found that businesses considered the measurement of emissions an enabling activity, but not a top driver, for the setting of emission strategies, targets and delivery of reductions.

Wider potential benefits to stakeholders include raising public awareness, supporting investors’ due diligence, and learning best practices in environmental management techniques. Businesses participating in the research said that the emission reports triggered board level interest in environmental issues and drove environmental behaviour change across the organisation.

The research report concludes that policies that encourage companies to better measure emissions will enable GHG emission reductions. External reporting is one such measure, as are policies that place a material cost of GHG emissions such as trading schemes and carbon taxes.

Defra has published a report summarising this and other research to help inform future plans for emission reporting – see Measuring and reporting environmental impacts (under “Future decisions being made” heading).

This report will help inform the Government’s decision on whether to make GHG reporting mandatory. An announcement on how the Government intends to proceed will be made in early 2011.

Environment Minister Lord Henley said:

“I am pleased to see that the many companies already voluntarily involved in reporting GHG emissions are finding the process beneficial to their business and investors. I am also delighted to see that the act of reporting is encouraging attempts to reduce emissions.

“The next steps for Government will be to consider the findings of the report. We’ll be announcing a way forward in early 2011.”

Chief Scientific Advisor Bob Watson said:

“It is encouraging to find that many companies see GHG reporting as beneficial to their business. The emission figures seem to act as a catalyst for other changes within the company resulting in wide ranging benefits for both the environment and the business.

“Tackling climate change is something we need to do together so it’s great to see the positive contribution being made by many British companies.”

Further reading

• Measuring and reporting environmental impacts (Defra): guidance for businesses and organisations on how to measure and report their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions;
• Review of the contribution of reporting to GHG emissions reductions and associated costs and benefits (PricewaterhouseCooper): research report available to download;
• Defra press release.

Thursday 17th March 2011
QEII Conference Centre, London

Those working in the public sector can now attend for just £99. Use SCENE99 code when booking. Private sector rates available on request.

Over the past five years, SDUK has established itself as a leading national forum for discussing the challenges and opportunities around sustainable growth within a low-carbon economy.

The 2011 conference will bring together over 350 delegates from central and local government, industry, education and the NHS to address key issues underlying the sustainability agenda, including:

• Phase 2 of the CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme and how this will affect your organisation;
• Driving sustainable development across government;
• Government energy policy including nuclear, renewables, smart meters and smart grids;
• Opportunities for collaboration between government and business to support growth in key low-carbon industries and develop the green economy;
• The role of science and research in providing the technology and methodology for sustainable development.

The conference will be chaired by Sara Parkin, Founder Director of Forum for the Future, and confirmed speakers include:

• Rt Hon Caroline Spelman MP, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs;
• Rt Hon David Willetts MP, Minister of State for Universities and Science, BIS;
• Tim Yeo MP, Chair, Energy and Climate Change Select Committee;
• Professor Sir John Beddington, Chief Scientific Advisor to HM Government;
• Professor David MacKay, Chief Scientific Adviser, DECC (provisionally confirmed);
• Professor Robert Watson, Chief Scientific Advisor, Defra;
• Andrew Lawrence, Director, Strategy and Sustainability, Defra;
• Professor Bernie Bulkin, Chair, Office for Renewable Energy Deployment, DECC;
• Dr Paul Leinster, Chief Executive, Environment Agency;
• Neil Herbert, Head of Licensing and Business Improvement, the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea;
• Artur Runge-Metzger, Director ‘International and Climate Strategy’, DG Climate Action, European Commission;
• Philip Monaghan, Author of Sustainability in Austerity: How Local Government can Deliver During Times of Crisis.

Full details and online booking are available at http://www.sduk-conference.co.uk/